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Hand Analyses 6th September, 2006
The computer opens up a can of worms on the very first deal. Opposite a hand which was good enough for a jump rebid of 3♥, South has slam in her sights, the main problem being to find which slam. 3♠ was forcing, of course, no doubt showing a 6-card suit, and then 4NT was Roman Key Card Blackwood in Hearts. This is the point at which the aforementioned can got opened, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Playing in Hearts (or No Trump), 12 tricks are available, but it’s not a good slam, requiring the Q♥ to be picked up, just a 37% chance with this particular holding (where would bridge writers be without “The Dictionary of Suit Combinations”?)
SAYC Note: SAYC does not use Roman Key Card, and straight Blackwood is not very helpful on this hand. Over 4♥ we’d suggest 5♥, saying “Bid slam if you like your hand”. North won’t like her hand, and 5♥ will be the final contract.
East’s 2♣ was the Drury convention, showing Heart support (and something at least resembling a limit raise), a convention used in some partnerships by a passed hand, to check whether or not Partner’s 3rd (or 4th) seat opening is sound … the basic idea is to keep things low opposite light 3rd hand opening bids. Anyway, that 2♣ bid was all that West needed to go to game.
4♥ is a fine contract, and the opening lead is likely to make it even finer. North won’t want to lead her singleton trump, this is often a disastrous lead, all too often picking up Partner’s Qxx or Jxxx. We also hate to lead unsupported Aces (and underleading them against a suit contract is even more dangerous), so that leaves North with the lead of a low Diamond, simply by a process of elimination. Alas, this lead guarantees the contract for West, so much for conventional wisdom! The Diamond lead gives Declarer 3 tricks in the suit, providing for a Club pitch … now, Declarer loses one Club and two Spades.
We are not advocating a trump lead on this hand, but it turns out to be the lead most likely to give Declarer a problem. On this lead Declarer will futz around for a while, but will eventually be forced to guess Clubs … he’ll lead a low Club towards Dummy’s KJ7, North will casually play low as she stifles a yawn (not ACBL-approved behavior, by the way), and if Declarer guesses wrong he will end up losing 2 tricks in each black suit for down one. Notwithstanding all of the above, we still prefer an opening lead of a Diamond.
SAYC Note: Drury is not an option in SAYC, so the simple auction of Pass 1♥, 3♥ 4♥ gets E-W to where they want to be.
North has 10 HCPs and 3-card support for Partner’s major, so he might have considered bidding a Forcing No Trump, then jumping to 3♠, showing a 3-card limit raise. But, really, this would be a serious overbid, that 3-3-4-3 shape is a big minus, and a direct 2♠ is quite enough. After 2♠, South might well have bid game immediately, she needs so little from Partner, but, sooner or later, all roads lead to 4♠.
Surely, in 4♠, most declarers will score up 11 tricks, losing just a Heart and a Spade. It takes the devilish lead of a Diamond from West (followed by a ruff when in with the A♠) to hold Declarer to 10 tricks, and this seems to be a most unlikely defense.
West’s hand was not up to snuff for a vulnerable Weak Two, but North certainly had the goods for her own preempt of 3♦. This put East in quite a tough spot, would you double or would you bid 4♣? We’re not sure that there is a right answer, but it does seem likely that the final contract will be 4♥, perhaps via the featured auction.
It takes superhuman defense to beat 4♥! North must lead a trump, which is far from obvious, our grandmother warned us against those singleton trump leads (see also Board 2). Once North has found the devilish trump lead, South must duck her Ace, allowing Dummy’s Ten to win the first trick. A low Diamond from Dummy, and now South must refrain from winning her other red Ace, allowing North to win and shift to a Spade. This lethal defense strands Declarer on the board with no way to get back to his hand to take the Diamond ruff … he’ll try the Q♠, but South’s King wins the trick, she then cashes A♥ (removing Dummy’s last remaining trump and the A♦ for down one. This is the only defense to beat the contract, on other lines the Declarer will be able either to get a Diamond ruff on the board, or else draw trumps and run the Clubs.
We wouldn’t expect many pairs to find this defense, surely making 10 tricks (occasionally 11, when the defense doesn’t find the Spade shift in time) will be the normal result.
A fairly straightforward auction gets E-W to 4♠ which is a reasonable enough contract. However, there are defensive ruffs in the air and down 2 is the most likely result.
3NT is the magic spot, of course, requiring good defense to hold it to 9 tricks (North leads a Heart, South ducks, and then ducks again when North gets in with an Ace and leads a second round of the suit).
North would have preferred to have better Hearts for her 3-card raise, so after South’s invitational 3♥ bid she was able to indicate her uncertainty by offering 3NT as an alternative contract. South, with those Diamond fillers, had an easy Pass of 3NT.
Declarer can count 8 tricks (if she budgets for a Club loser), and the ninth can come from any one of three suits: (a) If the defense leads Spades at any time, they will give Declarer the ninth trick; (b) The normal K♦ opening lead will allow Declarer to set up the extra trick in Diamonds; (c) Hearts are 3-3, providing another source for that 9th trick.
If N-S play in Hearts (from the South side) they’ll do well to escape to escape with 9 tricks.
With 21 HCPs and a good 5-card suit, South is very much at the top of a 20-21 2NT bid, and might have considered opening 2♣ and rebidding 2NT (showing 22-24).
Playing in No Trump is almost a repeat of the previous board … Declarer has 8 tricks, and the defense will surrender the 9th in whatever suit they attack. +600 and a top board for the aggressive bidders, +150 and an average minus for the others.
Aggressive bidding by East ... based on his good fillers in the unbid suit he upgraded his 10 HCPs and found a 2NT rebid, supposedly showing 11-12.
The result was the third straight touch-and-go 3NT contract. Declarer has 4 losers off the top (AK♠, AK♦), and some work to do in setting up 9 winners … additionally, there are transportation problems. Even though Declarer can establish 2 Spades and 2 Diamonds to go with his 3 top Hearts and 3 top Clubs, he’ll have trouble getting back and forth and may find himself eventually resorting to the Club finesse. When this works, he might even find himself making 10 tricks if the defense does not cash out in time.
A good stop by N-S! North considered herself too good for a 3♦ preempt (so do we), and South with a nice 12-count did not force to game, no doubt downgrading her hand because of the Club overcall.
Against a Spade contract, West will lead a red suit: (a) If West leads the A♥: The defense plays three rounds of Hearts, Declarer ruffing the 3rd round with the Ten while West pitches a Diamond … now, A♣, ruff a Club, cash one high Diamond, finesse the Spade Nine … Declarer loses just one Spade, two Hearts, and a Club. Note the importance of cashing precisely one Diamond before taking the Spade finesse, if Declarer fails to take this precaution she’ll be stranded on the board (not unlike Board 4); (b) If West leads a Diamond: A truly wicked lead! Declarer will suspect a singleton, and will win the A♦, play to the A♣ and ruff a Club, now play a Spade to the Ace (fearing that if West gets in with the K♠, he’ll get to Partner with a Heart and score a Diamond ruff) … now, Declarer must guess whether to play West for Kx or Kxx of Spades, and it’s not obvious that she’ll guess right (West could well be 3-3-1-6, for example).
Truly unlucky if any Souths had to contend with that vicious Diamond opening lead, and then misguessed the Spade situation.
West might well have downgraded his square 18 HCPs and rebid just 3♠, but either way East will declare 4♠. South will lead a high Heart, and eventually Declarer will make 10 or 11 tricks, depending upon whether he can guess the Q♣. He’ll have to rely on his table presence for this one because there won’t be any worthwhile clues from the bidding or the play.
North’s 2NT was the Jacoby 2NT, showing a game-forcing Spade raise. South’s 3NT showed some extra values and denied shortness … true, she actually has a singleton Diamond, but it’s usually not a good idea to make a shortness bid with a singleton Ace or King, it’s likely to mislead Partner and cause her to mis-evaluate her own hand … for example, consider how you might evaluate KQJx opposite shortness (you wouldn’t like it), compared with how you would evaluate KQJx opposite the Ace.
After 3NT, N-S got into a complicated cue-bidding sequence, of which more in the Bidding Quiz.
6♠ turns out to be a friendly contract, and the 2-2 Spades makes 12 tricks easy enough … 5 Spades, a Heart, 2 Heart ruffs, a Club, and 3 Diamonds (the 4th Diamond turns out to be overkill). If trumps are 3-1, Declarer cannot safely get his two Heart ruffs, so she would be forced to draw trumps, score just one ruff, and hope the Diamonds are worth 4 tricks.
Even though West is loaded with tricks, this is certainly not a 2♣ opening, such a bid requires more defense. On the other hand, it is too good for a 4♠ preempt, and we’d say that West’s sequence above described his hand pretty well.
In the play to 4♠, North must lead a Diamond to hold Declarer to 11 tricks … anything else and it’s 12 tricks when the Diamond loser disappears on the A♥. For what it’s worth, we’d lead the K♥ and end up with -480.
A straightforward transfer auction, with the Opener super-accepting to game. 10 tricks at every table. Note the importance of super-accepting on this board … if North had simply accepted the transfer with a 3♠ rebid, South would no doubt pass and N-S would have missed their easy game.
At this vulnerability, West might well have overcalled 2♣, but the West in the featured auction quite reasonably preferred a better hand and/or a better suit for a two-level overcall. There’s nothing much wrong with South’s 3♠ rebid, but at matchpoints we wouldn’t argue with a slightly heavy 2♠ either.
In a Spade contract, with the trumps coming in, Declarer can count 6 trumps and one trick in each side-suit, for a total of 9. However, the unfortunate (but not unreasonable) opening lead from West of the K♦ will give Declarer an unexpected 10 tricks.
North clearly is not going to game, and with that distributional hand would like to play in one of her suits. In the old days, this hand was a piece of cake … North would bid 2♣, South bids 2♦, and North signs off in 3♣. In modern-day bidding, most partnerships play that sequence as strong … no doubt an admirable treatment, but not useful on this hand.
Nowadays, it’s more common to use 4-suit transfers, which means that the way to escape to 3 of a minor is via a 2♠ transfer … this method works fine on the actual hand, of course, as there is no 4-4 Heart fit.
With West on lead, the J♠ seems like a reasonable way to kick things off, and this will be 10 tricks with careful play … the K♠ provides a pitch for the Diamond loser, and correct play in Hearts holds the losers in that suit to just two.
At some tables, North will be Declarer in 3♣, and that will likely result in just 9 tricks … East will lead the J♦, and now Declarer is destined to lose a Spade, two Hearts and a Diamond.
A Tricky False-Card: What exactly is the “correct play in Hearts”? We would run the 8-spot around, and if this loses to the Queen or Jack, we’d finesse the Ten on the second round … this line gains whenever East has the Nine and either or both of the Queen and Jack. Of course, if the Nine is with West and it wins the first trick, then Declarer must hope that the A♥ is onside. However, this line of play opens West up to the possibility of a delicious false-card from West. Consider this layout:
North 8762 West East QJ9 A53 South KT4
North leads the 8♥, low from East and South, and West produces the Queen (or Jack)! Now, the “correct play” will result in 3 Hearts losers when Declarer takes a second Heart finesse. Had West prosaically won the first round with the Nine, Declarer would have no option but to play East for the Ace.
SAYC Note: In SAYC, the prescribed treatment opposite a 1NT opening, when holding a weak hand in either minor, is to bid 2♠, an artificial bid telling Opener to bid 3♣. Responder now passes (as on the actual hand), or signs off in 3♦.
South has something of a rebid problem on this one. We like 2♥ ourselves (it almost looks like a 6-card suit), but there’s also something to be said for passing. However, we certainly don’t care one bit for 2♠ (the hand is not good enough), nor for 2♣ (that would be the “normal” response here to a Forcing No Trump, except that North is a passed hand, so there is no obligation to manufacture such a bid).
In the play to 2♥, Declarer can scramble 8 tricks (2 Spades, 5 Hearts and a Diamond) for +110. This should be a pretty good score as 1NT is limited to just 7 tricks on the predictable lead of a Diamond.
Flannery Note: Players of Flannery will get to 2♥ with no trouble … they’ll open the South hand 2♦ (showing 4-5 in the majors and 11-15 HCPs), and then North will no doubt choose the 5-2 fit (usually a better bet than the 4-3).
West’s sequence showed at least 6 Clubs and a hand of less than game-going strength. Some partnerships play that 1♠ 3♣ shows invitational values, which works well on this deal … in that case, West’s sequence can be further construed as less than invitational values. However, perhaps E-W were paying one of the prices of Bergen, namely less definition for the minor suit auctions.
The bad trump break dooms Declarer to down one in 3♣. Well, not quite, perhaps, North has to find the right lead … she won’t lead a Club from that holding, and the A♦ is most unattractive. Yes, Sherlock, that leaves a Spade or a Heart … on the lead of the Q♠, Declarer has the timing to ruff out the Jack and get a Heart pitch for 9 tricks, unless South finds the dangerous-looking Heart shift at Trick Two … but an opening lead of the Q♥ is Partner-proof and an easy down one.
Is it obvious that the Q♥ opening lead is preferable to the Q♠? Yes, we think so, Dummy’s second (and shorter) suit looks like a more promising source of defensive tricks.
West might have bid 2♠ after Partner’s Double, but we prefer 2♦, it’s the bid less likely to get Partner excited. Playing in 2♦ will be a miserable experience for East, and he’ll do well to scramble 6 tricks (A♠, A♣, Club ruff, and three trump tricks).
Do E-W do better in 2♠? Yes, that looks good for 7 tricks. But, alas, E-W will be unable to play it in 2♠, because, if West bids 2♠ after the Double, East will feel that he has to take one more bid, fearing that Partner might have a useful 6- or 7-count, a hand not quite good enough to make a Negative Double of 2♣. After West’s 2♠, his side will be propelled to 3♠ for the same down 2 as 2♦.
Not everybody will approve of that Weak Two by West, and with good reason … poor suit, vulnerable, second seat, these are all deterrents. 2NT asked for a feature, 3♣ showed one, and 3♥ was natural and forcing, allowing E-W to find the optimal 4♥ contract, despite West’s Weak Two.
The play in 4♥ hinges around how to play the Heart suit. The best way to pick up the suit for just 2 losers is to finesse twice against the Queen and Jack, which succeeds when North has the one or both of those cards. Declarer must take care with his entries, and he also has a couple of low Diamonds to take care of, too. We suspect that the theoretically best line of play (and one which, alas, is destined to fail) is as follows: Win the J♣ with the Ace Club to the King Heart finesse losing to the Queen Club return won by the Queen Heart won by North's Ace. North exits with a Diamond. Now, Declarer cannot pick up the remaining trumps and it's down one. However, there is another (inferior) line which works: Win the J♣ with the Ace Cash A♠ K♦ to the Ace Club to the King Cash Q♣ and K♠ Heart to the King Cash a Diamond Ruff a Diamond winner
There isn’t much to the play of 2♠, there are 5 obvious tricks for the defense, no more, no less, and E-W score +110.
We confess that we would have opened the North hand 1♠, a bid which, we are sad to report, is likely to turn out badly … it silences West, which means that either N-S will over-compete to 3♥ (down 2 and the dreaded -200), or else E-W will play it in Diamonds, scoring 130.
Some partnerships play that 1NT 2NT is some sort of minor suit bid (such as a transfer to Diamonds), in which case the way to invite to a No Trump game is to bid 2NT via Stayman. Therefore, as here, bidding Stayman does not guarantee a major when Responder rebids 2NT. This treatment used to be alertable, but no more … however, as a courtesy to the defenders (especially if they are inexperienced) Opener does well to announce, before the opening lead, that Responder may not have a 4-card major for her Stayman sequence. It has to be Opener who says this, of course, we cannot have Responder saying “My sequence does not guarantee a 4-card major” and then tabling KQJT of Spades!
2NT looks like 8 tricks, one is hard put to see how more or less might be made.
System Note: After North's 2♥, what would it mean if South bid 2♠ instead of 2NT? One common treatment (perhaps it's almost "standard" now) is as follows: 1NT 2♣, 2♥ 2♠ Invitational hand with 4 Spades 1NT 2♣, 2♥ 2NT Invitational hand without 4 Spades The benefit of this treatment is that it allows the partnership to play 2♠ when Opener has 4 Spades and a minimum hand.
SAYC Note: In SAYC, the auction is simpler and equally effective, just 1NT 2NT.
A routine auction, though North missed the chance for a bid that was distinctly non-routine, please see the Bidding Quiz.
In 4♥, the auction calls for a Club lead, and Declarer ruffs the second round of the suit. There is only one entry to the board and it must be used wisely … Declarer cashed A♥, crosses to the K♥, and runs the T♦ around to the King (with the J♦ being doubleton, finessing the Queen works, too). When the Diamonds come in for one loser it’s 10 tricks and a good board for E-W (some E-W pairs will miss this game).
4♠ looks like the normal spot, and it makes 12 tricks when both the K♦ and J♦ are both on-side.
In a competitive auction it’s customary to use the cue-bid to show support for Partner and a decent hand (at least invitational values). Here North has a choice of two cue-bids, which should he use? A useful treatment is as follows: With 3-card Support: Make the cheaper cue-bid (2♣) With 4-card Support: Make the expensive cue-bid (2♦)
Nice 3NT bid by West! It was quite reasonable to place East with AKxxxx, which is enough for 8 tricks. If East has the K♥ or Q♠ or A♣ that will be 9 tricks … and, if not, then 3NT will no doubt be a good save against 3♠!
Top board for E-W if they got to 3NT … N-S have a good save in 4♠, but that will be doubled for -300, which won’t be much better on a hand where the rest of the field will be in part-scores.
Against 1NT, South would do well to lead a Spade, resulting in a one-trick set. The alternative lead of a Club does not fare so well, knocking out Partner’s entry before the Spades are established, and allowing Declarer to scramble to 7 tricks.
One can hardly blame South for not finding the right lead on this board, but perhaps she could have done better in the bidding. Yes, we admit it, as South we would have shaded a 1NT overcall with our well-positioned 14-count … we like the 9♦ (we’d prefer the Ten, of course) and we like the vulnerability. We acknowledge that this will not be to everyone’s taste, but it certainly works well on the actual board. After our 1NT overcall, we’ll end up declaring a Spade contract, making 8 or 9 tricks.
An explanation of the N-S bidding is in order: 1NT: Generally shows 15-18 (though some pairs play the so-called Sandwich No Trump, a treatment that seems to be falling out of favor). 2♦: Yes, a Jacoby Transfer. 2NT: This is a Super-Accept of Hearts … a popular treatment nowadays is to play 2NT as the “good” Super-Accept. 3♦: A “re-transfer”, to get the hand played from the strong side.
It turns out that playing the hand from the strong side is much to be desired. If North declares, 9 tricks are made, but, with the weak hand declaring, West will lead a Club and the defense scores 5 tricks, via, 2 Clubs, a ruff, a Heart and a Diamond.
Let’s give South a round of applause, or at least a nod of approval, for her preemptive effort of 3♦ … true, she’s probably supposed to have another Diamond, but otherwise the hand looks like a preempt to us. The 3♦ bid puts E-W under some pressure … West has a clear-cut 3♥ call, but East might well be nervous about bidding 4♥ holding 3 small in the suit. He should probably bid 4♥ anyway but at least he was given the chance to go wrong.
In 4♥, the layout is most Declarer-friendly, with the A♦ on-side and the Hearts coming in for one loser. That amounts to 11 tricks and +450. If E-W end up in their 4-4 Spade fit, they’ll score the same 11 tricks, for an approximately average board.
It’s hard to argue with the auction, perhaps we can find something juicy in the play of the hand. Nope, that looks straightforward too, should be 11 tricks on all lines of play, except those which involve a revoke.
Let’s sit in the East chair for a moment. LHO opens 1♦, Partner doubles, and as we are mentally pulling out the 1♥ card we notice that North has bid 1♥ in front of us. Is she psyching? Probably not, but it is a well-known psyching situation, and a commonly prescribed remedy is as follows: With 4 Hearts we double. With 5 Hearts we bid 2♥, which is natural. Having said that, East needs a better hand to double (at least another King, we would say), and better Hearts would be nice, too! So, East passes, South bids 1♠, and now East finds himself in the balancing seat. Even vulnerable, it seems wimpy to pass, we think that East did well to dredge up a balancing “do-something-intelligent-Partner” Double. But a fat lot of good it did him, the opponents merely ended up in 2♠ making 3, instead of 1♠ making 3.
Is West’s 3♠ competitive (let’s say a moderate hand with an extra trump)? Or is it invitational (with extra values)? Unless you are playing Maximal Doubles (see Bidding Quiz), there is no good solution for this situation, and East was pretty much guessing when he raised to 4♠. Well, maybe not really a guess, he does have a very good hand indeed.
Against 4♠, North leads a Heart, and all roads lead to 11 tricks. But, lurking within this deal, there is one of those nasty traps for the unwary. Suppose that South wins the opening lead and shifts to a Diamond, won in Declarer’s hand … then the losing Spade finesse and another Diamond … trumps are drawn, and then when the Clubs come in it’s 11 tricks. So, where’s the trap? When playing Clubs, Declarer must play the Nine to King, then a Club back to the Ace, followed by a finesse of the Eight. If Declarer fails to unblock the Nine the last two Club winners will be stranded on the board.
Another Super-Accept auction, followed by a “re-transfer”. Against 3♥, South must lead a Diamond to hold Declarer to 9 tricks … however, that is most unappealing, a low trump lead looks much safer, albeit less successful on the actual deal. We’d expect lots of 170’s on the score-sheet.
Most pairs would have the same straightforward auction as above, and South would be relieved to discover that Hearts were under control (but see the Bidding Quiz).
In 3NT, the normal play in Clubs is to cash the King, and then finesse towards the long hand … this scoops up the Q♣, and gives Declarer an immediate 10 tricks. Well, actually it’s likely to be 11 easy tricks, because the chances are that East will lead a Spade.
On opening lead against a No Trump contract, with a holding such as KQT9x , it has become almost standard to lead the Queen, which says to Partner: If you have the Jack, please play it; Otherwise give me count. The benefit of this agreement is that saves us from the ignominy of the Bath Coup (whereby Declarer, holding AJx, ducks the opening lead and scores two tricks in the suit when the opening leader continues the suit).
That agreement is also useful with East’s Spade holding on this hand, where we would also suggest the lead of the Queen. Does such a lead help us on the actual hand? As a matter of fact, no, it doesn’t! Maybe next week!
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